January 30, 2012 Federal Seat Projection

January 30, 2012

A blend of polls conducted by Nanos, Abacus, Angus Reid, Harris-Decima and CROP (Quebec only) between Jan. 12-23 on an aggregate sample in excess of 5000 respondents projects Conservative strength to number around 144 seats, 66 for the Liberals and 82 for the NDP.

Ontario Election Post-Mortem

October 7, 2011

The apparent election result of 53-37-17 in seat distribution produced a 3.3 seat average error per party. This is lower than the 1.9 average error per party over the previous five Ontario elections, but stands up well against the federal postdiction average of 4 seats per party per election.

October 5, 2011 Seat Projection

A blending of polls collecting data from Nanos Research, Leger Marketing, Angus Reid and Ipsos Reid, which includes approximately 6000 respondents surveyed between Sept. 28-Oct.3, produces a popular vote distribution of Liberals 37%, Progressive Conservatives 32.5% and New Democratic Party 26%. That projects a seat distribution of 54 for the Liberals, 32 for the PC, and 21 for the NDP.

October 3, 2011 Ontario Seat Projection

A blend of telephone and on-line polls from Environics, Nanos, Leger and Angus Reid conducted between Sept. 26-30, with a total sample size of more than 3500, produces the following seat projection: 47 for the Liberals, 39 for the Conservatives, and 21 for the NDP.

September 26, 2011 Ontario Seat Projection

A massive new survey of 40,000 from Forum Research published in this past weekend's Toronto Star confirms other polls conducted since the beginning of September that Ontario is heading for a minority government, with seat projections as follows: Liberals 46, PC 42, and NDP 19. In fact the most recent projection which includes a blending of samples with polls taken the previous week by Leger and Angus Reid is almost identical with the Sept.20 LISPOP projection.

September 20, 2011 Ontario Seat Projection

Current polls project 46 seats to the Liberals, 41 to the Progressive Conservatives, and 20 to the NDP. Projection is drawn from a blended and weighted sample of polls from Angus Reid, Leger Marketing, Nanos Research and Ipsos Reid conducted from Sept.7-18 (n=4000). Given the relative dearth of polls available during the Ontario election campaign to this point, LISPOP is going to revert to a 14 day window for poll inclusion, but will down weight the earlier data.

September 14, 2011 Ontario Seat Projection

Current polls project 52 seats to the Liberals, 37 to the Conservatives, and 18 to the NDP. Projection is drawn from a blended and weighted sample of polls from Ipsos and Nanos conducted from Sept.7-11. The number of new respondents interviewed is only 1300, but the polls confirm trends reported in the previous LISPOP projection.

September 9, 2011 Ontario Seat Projection

The accompanying seat projection is based upon a blended and weighted aggregation of four polls from Harris-Decima, Nanos, Angus Reid and Forum Research conducted during the period from Aug.29-Sept. 4. The overall sample comprised over 5000 interviews.

September 2, 2011 Ontario Seat Projection

The accompanying seat projection was based upon a blended and weighted sample of 3300 respondents conducted by Forum Research and Angus Reid during the last few days of August.

August 18, 2011 Ontario Seat Projection

The following seat projection is based upon a blending of Ipsos and Nanos polls conducted in early August. The underlying vote proportions were CON-40%, LIB-35%, and NDP-20%. The seat totals were CON-51, LIB-41, and NDP-15.

July 19, 2011 Ontario Seat Projection

The recent Ipsos poll for Ontario posted on July 14 providing a Conservative lead of 11% presents a provincial projection of Con-63 seats, Lib-25 seats, NDP-19 seats.